OP-18 boxes are a pass at $300 until the first wave lands

One Piece's next set, The Dominance of God [OP-18], reaches English stores on Nov. 20 at about $5 a pack. That math puts a 24-pack box near $120, yet English preorders on eBay already ask around $300. That's about what an OP-17 box sold for this month, except OP-17 is already out and its chase cards already have prices. Miniature Market's store preorder asks $270 with a limit of four.

The premium does have a reason behind it. Bandai's English page now confirms the card people were whispering about, an alt art with original artwork by Yoshitaka Amano of Final Fantasy fame, with Saint Shamrock and Loki beside a Super Alt Art of Nico Robin and a Super Leader Alt Art of Saint Gunko. An Amano card should pull in Final Fantasy collectors who have never played One Piece. The last time a main set landed in November, OP-13 got swept up in the run that lifted the whole market that winter. If that happens again, today's asks could look cheap.

But a premium on a sealed box only gets tested once boxes show up. OP-17 reached English stores on Aug. 28. A few clean eBay sales came through between $250 and $260 on Oct. 31. That's the kind of day I'm waiting for, though it hasn't lasted, because OP-17 boxes still sell around $300 this month.

Forget $150 on the open market, where only one of the 358 English One Piece box sales we pulled since late July went under it. If a raffle or a local shop hands you a box at those prices, take it. $250 isn't a promise either, since most OP-17 sales since day 30 came in above $275.

I wouldn't pay $300 for an OP-18 box before the set is even out. I'd buy between $250 and $275 from Dec. 20 to Feb. 18, about 30 to 90 days after release, once the first wave has landed. EB-06 also comes out Jan. 29, giving buyers another box to spend on. If boxes still sit at $300 on Feb. 18, Amano earned the premium and I'll live with missing it.