CJ Carr's first Bowman auto sells where Mendoza's did before his Heisman

CJ Carr went from a 13% chance to win the Heisman on Polymarket to a 32% favorite overnight after he threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns in Notre Dame's 31-24 win over No. 1 Miami last Saturday. On Tuesday the Irish jumped from No. 11 to No. 5 in the playoff rankings, the first team ever to leap from outside the top 10 into the top five in one week. His 2026 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autograph, the first Bowman auto for Lloyd Carr's grandson, sold raw for $144 in an eBay auction on Tuesday night, right around what it brought in late October.

There are fair reasons the card hasn't moved. It had already come down from its release-week prices before he ever played Miami. He isn't the favorite anymore, either. On Friday Polymarket had him back at 17%, third behind Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith at 32% and Miami's Darian Mensah at 26%. Carr also can't enter the NFL draft until 2027, his third year out of high school. His 2024 redshirt leaves him two more college seasons if he wants them. Whoever buys his card now could be holding it a long time before he takes an NFL snap.

But if you follow college football, you know a Heisman usually leads to the top of the draft. Nine straight winners have gone in the top 10, six of the last nine of them first overall. Fernando Mendoza was the last of them. His 2025 Bowman Chrome University Prospect Autograph sold for about $155 in November 2025, the month before he won, about where Carr's sells now.

Mendoza didn't even start right away. The Raiders still started Kirk Cousins for their first nine games while Mendoza waited as the backup. On Tuesday they traded Cousins to Minnesota and named Mendoza the starter, with his first start coming Sunday against Seattle. Lamar Jackson took the long way too, going 32nd in 2018 as a Heisman winner and backing up Joe Flacco until his first start on Nov. 18 that year.

That's why I'd treat Carr's auto as a long hold. If you think he wins the Heisman, a big game against Boston College on Saturday isn't the time to sell, nor is the ceremony in December. Mendoza's auto sold for more in the month he was drafted than in the month he won the trophy. His starting job came more than six months after the draft.