Fernando Mendoza's Card Sales Quadrupled Before His First NFL Start

Fernando Mendoza’s cards quadrupled in sales, driven primarily by the release of Topps Flagship with some sales driven from his 2025 Bowman Chrome U counterparts. Mendoza's key rookie autos have dropped as Topps releases more products, increasing market supply. However, sales have skyrocketed because fans think Mendoza’s first start could be imminent.

The Las Vegas Raiders selected Mendoza with the No. 1 pick on April 23, after a season in which he won the Heisman, led his Hoosiers to a 16-0 record, and won the National Championship, while throwing 41 TDs against 6 interceptions.¹ The rookie quarterback has yet to start a game; however, he debuted off the bench on Oct. 11 and performed decently, completing six of eight pass attempts for 48 yards in the loss to the New England Patriots.² On October 18, veteran Kirk Cousins started again for the Raiders in a 33-30 loss to the Buffalo Bills.³

But what does this mean for his card market? His cards have been moving, but prices have dropped since each product’s release because he hasn’t started a game.

Mendoza’s 2025 Bowman Chrome U Auto

Mendoza’s 1st Bowman Chrome base autograph is very volatile; a ton of raw copies have sold in the few-hundred-dollar range, but the graph above shows the huge gap between PSA 9 and PSA 10 sales. PSA 9s aren't as easy to move as gem mint copies; I can see why, though: buyers want a bigger investment and hope it pays off. He won the Heisman and the National Championship and was the 1st overall pick. Across all sports, it isn’t uncommon for 1st overall pick card prices to start astronomically high. The card’s value peaked on March 15, 2026, just over a month before the NFL Draft, when a PSA 10 copy sold for $2,650 in an eBay auction. Since then, his market has dropped, but his cards continue to sell in high volumes, likely because he hasn't made his first start yet. Let’s take a look at another card.

The drop-off of Mendoza’s numbered cards

Many of Fernando Mendoza’s Topps Flagship gold parallels /2026 have moved on the market since the product’s August release, with a sale in the first week setting the peak price to date at $150, but the card’s market value has since decreased. The median has dropped from $100 at release to $50 in the last two weeks, a 50% decline in less than 3 months. The lowest-priced copy of this card currently sits on eBay with an asking price of $60.⁴ If he wins the Raiders’ starting job and performs well, we might see more numbered Mendoza sales, and at higher price points, too.

We looked at his 1st Bowman Chrome autograph in his college uniform; let’s also look at his 2026 Bowman Chrome Rookie auto.

Mendoza’s Bowman Chrome rookie auto has dropped in value since release

Buyers on the secondary market are spending hundreds of dollars on Mendoza cards every day, especially rookie autos. His Bowman Chrome rookie auto peaked at slightly over $800 and is now valued at about $410. The sharp price decline reflects his lack of on-field time, and until he gets the starting job, sales of each Topps product will likely plummet after the first week or two of release.

Understanding Redemptions: One of Mendoza’s primary autograph cards is a redemption

Everyone has a different opinion on redemption cards because they expire. Before Fanatics acquired Topps, redemptions expired about two years after the product's release, meaning you had two years to scratch the code on the back and submit it online to get the card. If you pulled an expired redemption, you were essentially out of luck. On April 29, 2024, Topps announced a change that will benefit collectors opening products dated 2021/22, 2022, or newer.⁵ Extending the redemption period to ten years from the product's release encourages collectors to open products from previous years without worrying about an expired redemption. While the player still has to sign the card and return it to Topps, which doesn’t always happen, extending redemptions is a step in the right direction.

This happened to me once: I pulled a dual on-card baseball autograph, and it took a long time because the second player hadn’t signed it yet, and the deadline had presumably passed, so the players had no reason to sign. So Topps sent me a replacement card.

Topps will fulfill redemptions as soon as they can, and sometimes the turnaround is very quick. Still, some collectors who pull a redemption, especially of a big name, may not want to wait and may just sell the unscratched redemption, with some Mendoza redemptions selling for as high as $1,075 as one did on August 28.⁶