Dark Dragonite's $384,000 PSA 10 Didn't Hold

A PSA 10 of Dark Dragonite reverse holo foil from Pokémon's 2002 Legendary Collection sold for $384,000 at Fanatics Collect on Oct. 18 after 20 bids. Four days later, two more sold for $192,000 at Fanatics Collect and $182,400 at Alt. The same card in a PSA 10 sold for $26,000 on eBay in February. Why has it seen such a monumental rise? Because of its PSA 10 gem rate.

As of Oct. 22, the reverse holo has a gem rate of only 2% at PSA, with 47 PSA 10s out of 2,269 graded. Low pop collectors are paying a massive premium to hold onto one of the rarest vintage cards in existence.

Raw copies sold for $360 to $1,500 in October, about the same spread as in June. The spreads on raw cards are commonly large like this because of the condition factor. Collectors (and sellers) know when they have a potential gem, but don't have the conviction to send it in themselves when they can just mark it up on a marketplace. Especially considering the low gem rate on this card, it's unlikely to get the score they want. Sending one to PSA for a shot at the 10 is a tough sell when PSA has given 454 copies an 8.

On the day the 10 sold, a PSA 9 went for $12,100 on eBay after one sold for $18,200 on Oct. 5.

A collector who paid $18,200 for a PSA 9 on Oct. 5 has watched one sell for $12,100 since.