Pete Crow-Armstrong Card Sales Halved Once His NL MVP Looked Certain

Pete Crow-Armstrong's cards sold 11,935 times in the week of Aug. 31, more than in any other week of the past year. By the end of that week, Polymarket gave him a 92 percent chance to win the National League MVP. Five weeks later, with his odds at 99 percent, his cards sold 4,670 times.

The race built that market. Crow-Armstrong finished the season with 45 home runs and 41 stolen bases for the Cubs, hitting his 40th homer on Sept. 6 and stealing his 40th base on Sept. 24. Polymarket had him at 13 percent to win the award on July 21 and 88 percent on Sept. 1. Weekly sales of his cards nearly tripled over the same stretch, from 4,034 in the week of July 27 to the peak in the week of Aug. 31.

Once the award looked settled, the buying slowed. Sales fell in each week of September, even as he finished his 40-40 season. The Padres then swept the Cubs out of the Wild Card Series in San Diego, 8-0 on Sept. 29 and 4-1 on Sept. 30, with Crow-Armstrong going 0-for-7. From Oct. 12 to 17, his cards sold 3,325 times.

Fewer sales have not meant lower prices on his best-known Chrome rookie. His 2024 Topps Chrome rookie in a PSA 10 sold for $95 on July 9. The 13 copies that sold on eBay between Sept. 6 and Oct. 14 went for $236 to $385. The latest sold for $320 on Oct. 14.

There is a fair case that the MVP is already in the price. Polymarket had him at 98.5 percent on Oct. 18 with Kalshi's last trade at 98 cents. But once the race settled, collectors stopped competing for his cards. His cards are now selling at their slowest pace since late July. We'd expect the November announcement to bring a short burst of sales rather than a new high, because the market has treated him as the winner since mid-September. If you want his Chrome rookie in PSA 10, bid around $300, where five of those 13 copies sold, before the announcement brings buyers back.