Ohtani's Base Grail Is on Sale

The Brewers beat the Dodgers 6-4 in Game 4 on Thursday to sweep the National League Championship Series and end Shohei Ohtani's season. Ohtani hit a three-run homer in the second inning and struck out in each of his other three at-bats.

Before that homer, Ohtani had four hits in 22 postseason at-bats for a .182 average and no RBIs. He hadn't homered since Aug. 18 at Colorado. Dave Roberts dropped him to sixth in Game 3 for the first time since he joined the Dodgers.

I've been watching his rookie cards fall since August. All six of his main 2018 rookies sold for less in PSA 10 in October than in the first two weeks of August, but most of that drop is the summer run-up coming back out of the price.¹

His cards kept climbing in July while his MVP odds fell

Ohtani was an 88 percent favorite to win a third straight NL MVP on Polymarket on July 1. By Sept. 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong had passed him and Ohtani's price was down to 12 percent. On Oct. 15 it sat at 1.35 percent against 98.6 percent for Crow-Armstrong.²

The card market ran the other way for a month. His Bowman Chrome rookie in PSA 10 sold for a weekly median of $5,398 in the week of July 6 and $7,849 in the week of Aug. 3. Then it fell for ten straight weeks.

His biggest nights have moved his cards more than his awards. The 50-50 game in 2024 and his three-homer, 10-strikeout NLCS game last October lifted all six rookies within a week, with the gains still there a month later. His last two NL MVP awards and both World Series titles left the Bowman Chrome flat or lower a month later.³

The real question is: now that the Dodgers are in the offseason, do his cards continue to fall before next season starts, or did they find a floor? It's hard to believe that the best of Ohtani is in the past. Hitting a baseball is hard enough when you also have to go out and throw 100 pitches at the MLB level.

The round trip for summer buyers

For longtime holders of Ohtani, you are still enjoying some nice gains. But for collectors who picked up an Ohtani during the summer hoping for a 3-peat, you're going to need to wait a little longer.

The cards that ran hardest this summer fell hardest after it. Ohtani's three Chrome rookies lost 27 to 37 percent from early August. His Topps, Topps Update and Heritage rookies lost 11 to 20 percent.

The latest PSA 10 sale of each card:

• Bowman Chrome #1: sold for $4,400 on eBay, Oct. 15
• Topps Chrome #150 Refractor: sold for $4,631 on eBay, Oct. 12
• Topps Chrome #150: sold for $1,150 on Fanatics Collect, Oct. 15
• Topps #700: sold for $650 on eBay, Oct. 15
• Topps Heritage #600: sold for $685 on eBay, Oct. 15
• Topps Update #US1: sold for $455 on eBay, Oct. 11

The whole star-rookie market cooled over the same weeks. Juan Soto's 2018 Topps Update rookie fell 11 percent in PSA 10 from early August to October while Ronald Acuña Jr.'s fell 20 percent. Ohtani's Topps Update matched Soto's 11 percent drop.⁴

Comparing Topps Update rookies between Ohtani and Judge over the past year, Ohtani's PSA 10 rookie card cost $150 against $136 for Aaron Judge's 2017 rookie. This month it's $475 against $197. Everything is relative to timing, so even though the price has retraced, Ohtani collectors are sitting pretty.

Sellers on eBay are still asking August prices

Only three of the 43 PSA 10 Bowman Chromes listed on eBay on Oct. 15 had an ask of $5,000 or less. The median ask price is $7,956 for listings that mostly went up before Oct. 1. PSA 10 copies sold for a median of $4,750 across 36 sales since Oct. 1. Don't overpay for your Ohtani right now. Especially now that their postseason is over.⁵

If you're looking for a cheaper option, the Topps Update PSA 10 cheapest ask on Oct. 15 was $492 against a $482 median sold price since Oct. 1.

His rookies bottomed before Christmas in each of the last three winters

In each of the last three offseasons, all six of Ohtani's rookies hit their low within about seven weeks of his last game. Every one of them nearly recovered by Opening Day.

His 2023 elbow tear hit much harder. All six rookies lost more than half their value between August and November that year, against 11 to 37 percent since his injury woes this season.

I'm buying three of the six this winter

The Bowman Chrome #1, in late November

The Bowman Chrome is the Ohtani rookie I'd want in my PC. It's back to the price it held from March through June. After each of the last three seasons it slid another 11 to 16 percent before it turned. I'd bid around $4,000 for a PSA 10 in late November against the $4,750 it has sold for since Oct. 1.

It's PSA 10 or bust with this card. Raw copies consistently sold above PSA 9, $1,903 against $1,813. If you find a quality copy at a card show or your local hobby shop, it could be worth the PSA 10 gamble.

The Topps Update #US1, in mid-November

I'm still buying the Topps Update my Top 10 baseball cards to buy list picked this month. It fell 5 to 19 percent from his last game to a mid-November low in each of the last three winters. In mid-November I'll bid around $410 for a copy that has been selling around $482 since Oct. 1.

A sealed 2018 Topps Update hobby box sold for $2,651 on eBay on Aug. 1 and $3,500 on Sept. 29 while the main chase in the box slid.⁶ If you're looking for Ohtani, just buy the slab instead of paying the gambler's premium. Leave the boxes to wax collectors.

The Topps Chrome #150

The base Topps Chrome PSA 10 has sold 59 times since Oct. 1, beating the Bowman Chrome and the Refractor combined. Last winter it sold for $437 in the season's last week and $878 in the week before Opening Day. Let's see how prices trend over the next 2 months before bidding. It's currently going for $1,250 since Oct. 1.

Raw copies have a gem rate of 86% from PSA where all other cards on this list top out at 68%. Raw copies are selling around $555 since Oct. 1. Add PSA's $80 Priority fee for an all-in of $635.

Skip these Ohtani rookie cards this winter: Topps #700 and Heritage #600

A Heritage buyer should wait until mid-December, because it had the deepest winter dip of the six in two of the last three offseasons and bottomed on Dec. 16 in 2024 and Dec. 21 in 2025. The Topps #700 had the steadiest week-to-week prices of the six over the last year. I'd still rather own the Topps Update, because I can get it for about $235 less in PSA 10 at October prices.

Buy the dip on Ohtani, after his last game

Ohtani has been playing hurt. Left knee and right biceps issues have kept him off the mound for a few months, the AP reported. Before the Division Series he said he wasn't fully healthy and that the injuries will be dealt with after the season.

I'm not buying tonight. His rookies kept sliding for weeks after his last game in each of the last three winters, then climbed into Opening Day every time. Monitor prices into the holiday season and pick up your Ohtani as a Christmas gift to yourself.

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