The SCN Challenge Is Fantasy Football But With Graded Cards

Ten hobby creators are playing fantasy football this season, except their players are graded cards. It's the SCN Challenge from Sports Cards Nonsense. The winner takes home a $1,500 cash prize.¹ Each manager built a portfolio of five PSA-graded football cards on a budget of about a thousand dollars. The biggest percentage gain after the Super Bowl wins. Nobody buys or sells a card. Every week of this simulated competition, each graded card's price is updated and percentage gain/loss is posted to the leaderboard live at scnchallenge.com.²

Brendan Darr, one of the 10 managers, writes it up for Collectibles on SI. Joe Bartel and Chris Thomas host a weekly show about it every Wednesday.³

The SCN Challenge ranks managers on percentage gains, not dollars

• The draft. Five graded cards per manager, with values locked on Sept. 8. One "hero" card can take up to half the budget. The other four have to fall between $25 and $300 each. No two managers can hold the same card, but the same player in a different grade is fair game.
• The scoring. Managers are ranked on the percent change in their roster's total value, measured against what their five drafted cards were worth on Sept. 8. A $50 card that doubles adds as much as a $500 card that gains 10 percent.²
• The waiver wire. Five swaps in the regular season and five more in the playoffs. A swap has to be value-neutral within 10 percent.² Claims run every Tuesday in reverse standings order.
• The finish. Rosters lock Feb. 1 and the final valuation runs a week after the Super Bowl. The champion is crowned Feb. 24.

Alex Llanso leads the SCN Challenge after Week 5

Alex Llanso claimed a 2025 Topps Chrome Tyler Shough Leather Gold in a PSA 10 off waivers in Week 2 at a league value of $219. After Week 5 the league values it at $500. That one card carried him to the top of the board at 22.8 percent.²

Jason Otero sits second at 19.2 percent. Trent Litjes was second when the Week 5 board first posted on Oct. 14. But the league has since lowered the Week 5 value of his 2023 Prizm Bijan Robinson Silver auto in a PSA 9 from $242 to $177. That cut drops him to third at 14 percent.² Jesse Gibson is last at minus 8.5 percent, with Gary LeMaster the only other manager in the red.²

A week earlier, Trent led at 27.8 percent, ahead of Otero and Darr.⁴ He built most of his roster from Panini Prizm Silver rookie autos in PSA 9 and remains the only manager who hasn't used a single waiver move.²

Half the league owns Tyler Shough

Tyler Shough is the league's favorite waiver pickup. Trent and Darr drafted him before three more managers grabbed a Shough rookie off the wire in the first two weeks. On the flip side, four managers have dropped Justin Herbert after his horrendous start to the season. The Chargers are 0-6 after a 22-6 loss at Kansas City on Oct. 18. Herbert has thrown eight interceptions against five touchdowns.⁵ That'll be a tough one to recover from.⁶

Jason Otero's $70 Peyton Manning is the best card in the league

Otero locked his 1998 PSA 9 Metal Universe Peyton Manning rookie at $70 on draft day. It was the cheapest card on his roster and the main driver of his SCN Challenge success. No card in the league has climbed more since!²

Five PSA 9 copies sold for less than $80 in July, against seven sales of $120 to $265 since Sept. 2.⁷ Otero's copy is up 261 percent on the league's Week 5 value of $253.² Over the last 3 months, the card's value has skyrocketed and Otero took it for a ride. Great pick.

One sale can move a card's value overnight

The league takes every card's weekly value from Card Ladder. The "Card Ladder Value" is derived from the newest sale of that exact card and grade. If that sale is under two weeks old, the value is the sale price. If it's older, Card Ladder adjusts the old price by how the player's other cards have moved since.⁸

Alex's Leather Gold Shough is the only copy PSA has graded as a 10. He claimed the card off waivers at $219 in Week 2. It sold for $554 at auction with 42 bids on Oct. 11. Two days after the auction, its league value shot up to $500.⁹

Of the 22 cards that jumped 10 percent or more in a single week from Week 1 to Week 3, 11 cards gave back more than half of that gain by Week 5. Prices were most stable for highly liquid cards that sell almost every day.¹⁰

Waiver swaps occur every week on Tuesdays in reverse standings order. If a manager uses their waiver swap, then the manager claims the outgoing card's value on that day and the percentage change is recorded.

Every waiver move so far, graded

Each swap locks in whatever the old card gained or lost. The new card starts at its pickup price. We graded each swap on how the new card has done since, through Oct. 13. An A is up 25% or more, a B is up 10% to 25%, a C is between down 5% and up 9.9%, a D is down 5% to 15% and an F is down more than 15%.¹⁰

Alex traded a Justin Herbert Optic Blue Scope for the Shough Leather Gold on Sept. 22. He picked up the Leather Gold at a league value of $219. One copy sold for $554 at auction on Oct. 11. Its league value was $500 on Oct. 13, up 128%. No swap in the league has done better.¹⁰

The McMillons traded a Justin Herbert Optic Holo for a Tyler Shough Topps Chrome Teal Wave /299 on Sept. 22. They picked up the Shough at a league value of $295. Its league value was $313 on Oct. 13, up 6%. The Herbert Holo has sold 21 times since at around $182. Cutting Herbert was the right call.¹⁰

Otero traded his A.J. Brown Prizm Silver for a Tyler Shough Topps Chrome rookie on Sept. 15. He picked up the Shough at a league value of $88. Its league value was $116 on Oct. 13, up 32%. No copy has sold since one sold for $87 on Sept. 13. Shough threw for 96 yards and two interceptions in a 23-13 loss to Minnesota on Oct. 11.¹¹ I'd want a real sale before I trust that jump.¹⁰

Gordy traded a Jaxson Dart Select Silver for a Joe Burrow Optic Green Velocity on Sept. 29. He picked up the Burrow at a league value of $200. Its league value was $220 on Oct. 13, up 10%. The Burrow has sold four times since. The latest sold for $220 on Oct. 5.¹⁰ Burrow threw for 428 yards against Jacksonville in Week 4 and four touchdowns at Miami in Week 5.¹¹

The McMillons traded a Jayden Daniels Optic Blue Scope for a Jaxon Smith-Njigba Optic Holo on Sept. 22. They picked up the Smith-Njigba at a league value of $170. Its league value was $150 on Oct. 13, down 12%. Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with 717 receiving yards through six games.¹¹ Cutting Daniels still looks right. One sold for just $96 on Sept. 28.¹⁰

Doug traded a Justin Herbert Optic Preview Pink for a Brock Purdy Donruss Press Proof Premium PSA 10 on Sept. 29 at a $115 league value. Purdy has 13 touchdown passes for a 49ers team that's 5-0.¹¹ The Purdy has sold 24 times since at around $139. The latest sold for $215 on Oct. 16. That sale should boost Doug's scores for next week.¹⁰

Jesse traded a Malik Willis Chronicles Black for a Christian McCaffrey Contenders Optic Gold /10 on Oct. 6 at a league value of $130. Neither card has sold since.¹⁰ McCaffrey has five touchdowns for the unbeaten 49ers.¹¹

Gordy traded a Justin Herbert Prizm Red/White/Blue PSA 9 for a Fernando Mendoza Topps Now PSA 9 on Oct. 6 at a league value of $31. His Mendoza card sold for $31 on Oct. 8.¹⁰ Mendoza took his first NFL snaps on Oct. 11, going 6-of-8 for 48 yards late in a 45-17 loss to New England. Kirk Cousins started again in the Raiders' 33-30 loss to Buffalo on Oct. 18.¹¹ If Mendoza gets more snaps, or at least news that he might start, Gordy might earn a few percentage points on his score.

Gary traded a Baker Mayfield Prizm PSA 10 for a Brock Purdy Donruss Press Proof PSA 9 on Sept. 29 at a league value of $50. Purdy's value has risen to $59 as of Oct. 13, up 18%.¹⁰ Josh Allen has passed Purdy for MVP on Polymarket, 30% to 25%.

Gio traded a Kyler Murray Select Silver for a Puka Nacua Prizm Orange /249 on Sept. 29 at a league value of $200. Puka's league value is down 12.5% at $175 as of Oct. 13.¹⁰ Nacua caught a career-high 17 passes against Buffalo on Oct. 12. He caught six passes for 80 yards in an 18-16 loss to Arizona on Oct. 18.¹¹

Otero traded a Caleb Williams Optic Red Pandora for a Bijan Robinson Optic Rookie Kings on Sept. 29 at a league value of $215.¹⁰ Caleb's hamstring injury kept him out from Week 2 until Oct. 18, when he went 30 of 36 for 305 yards in Chicago's 31-23 win at Atlanta. Bijan was held to 53 scrimmage yards in that game, ending a run of three straight 100-yard games.¹¹

Darr traded his Caleb Williams Optic Purple Shock for a Patrick Mahomes Topps Chrome Blue Wave /150 on Sept. 22 at a league value of $197. He made the move two days after Caleb was diagnosed with a hamstring injury.¹¹ Its league value was $150 on Oct. 13, down 24%. The Mahomes Blue Wave hasn't sold since August. It's the one swap I'd undo.¹⁰ Mahomes is PFF's top-graded quarterback, with nine touchdowns and three interceptions for a 5-0 team. This is the perfect example of right player, but wrong card. The /150 scarcity is hurting him here.

The team nobody likes

Jesse Gibson built the strangest roster in the league around backup quarterbacks, including Mac Jones and Malik Willis. He opened his pick reveal on the Sept. 8 podcast with "Malik Willis, PSA 10. The hits keep on coming."¹² He finally relented in Week 4 to his poor strategic draft choices and swapped Willis for a Christian McCaffrey Contenders Optic Gold /10.² Let's see if it plays out for him.

We'd skip the hero card and lean on young players

1. Skip the hero card. The seven hero cards still held are down $72 in league value combined through Week 5. Heroes also moved the least week to week. Trent sits third with no hero. He locked five cards at league values between $145 and $248 on draft day.
2. Lean young. Cards from the 2023 to 2026 rookie classes still in the league are up a typical 6 percent since their lock, against 1 percent for cards from 2017 to 2022.
3. Hold one lottery card. A numbered parallel of a rising player that rarely sells can jump on one auction. Alex's Leather Gold did.
4. Anchor with cards that sell every day. Liquid cards held their prices while thin cards gave back half their gains 11 times out of 22.
5. Sell a thin card's jump at the next Tuesday claim. Card Ladder holds the new value for two weeks, then follows the next sale.
6. Use every move, but save one for December. A regular-season swap you never make is lost, because the five don't carry into the playoffs. Hold the last one until December for a late injury or breakout.

CardWire's picks

We're playing along from the sidelines under the league's rules. Our five PSA-graded football cards have to total $950 to $1,000. Each has to fall between $25 and $300. Each locks at its latest eBay sale as of Oct. 15. We'll score them every Thursday next to the league.¹³

We scored 92 players on their award odds, playoff odds, schedules and injuries. Then we pulled sales for about 1,700 PSA 9 and PSA 10 cards and tested which ones moved with their players in the league's first five weeks. These five scored highest inside the budget.¹⁴

Four days after the lock, our five are up about 7 percent. They locked at $990 and their latest sales through Oct. 19 add up to $1,063. Allen and Purdy did the work. Allen's PSA 9 sold for $223 at auction on Oct. 19, against a $180 lock. We locked Purdy's Prizm Black at $120 on Oct. 15 before copies sold for $130 and $225 later that day and for $150 on Oct. 18.¹⁵

Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receiving yards. His odds of finishing the season as the league leader went from 11.5% to 56% on Polymarket in about a month.¹⁶ His Silver auto in a PSA 9 sold six times in the 30 days through Oct. 19. The latest sold for $250 on Oct. 14.¹⁵

Allen's Prizm rookie in a PSA 9 is the most liquid card on our roster. It sold 49 times in the 30 days through Oct. 19. The latest sold at auction for $223 on Oct. 19.¹⁵ Allen leads the MVP market at 30%, ahead of Purdy at 25%.¹⁶

Gibbs is the favorite for Offensive Player of the Year at 31% on Polymarket, up from 13.5% in September.¹⁶ His Optic Holo in a PSA 10 has sold for around $137 in October, against $140 in September. The latest sold for $150 on Oct. 14.¹⁵

Purdy's MVP odds on Polymarket went from about 5% to 25% in about a month.¹⁶ His Chronicles Prizm Black in a PSA 10 has sold for around $120 in October, against $100 in September. The latest sold for $150 on Oct. 18.¹⁵

Bijan's run of three straight 100-yard games ended on Oct. 18, when Chicago held him to 53 scrimmage yards. He has 641 rushing yards through six games.¹¹ His odds of leading the league in rushing went from 11.5% to 29% on Polymarket in about a month.¹⁶ His Prizm Silver in a PSA 10 has sold for around $282 in October, against $188 in September. The latest sold at auction for $290 on Oct. 12.¹⁵

The 10 SCN Challenge managers and their shows

Rosters, moves and every card's value are on scnchallenge.com. A new episode of the show drops every Wednesday morning. Follow along on CardWire every Thursday for a recap of the week's standings and our exclusive takes on the cards moving the leaderboard.